Monthly analysis of 2007-08 and Now

MONTHLY

October High   <  September High 
    ($201.82)            ($201.92)


2007: You can appreciate the divergence between (1) price and MACD, as well as (2) price and RSI.

2014: No such divergences yet

  =>    We expect that we will see a higher - high some time in the future

Is it going to be next month (November) ?

We will wait and see!

Should a higher high take place next week, we will have the occurrence of the divergence we saw in the summer of 2007



WEEKLY

2011: You can appreciate the development of divergence between the top of 3 (high prior to '4') and 5 (high after '4') versus MACD and RSI. Following the topping off, we have a lower MACD and RSI along with a lower price, which displays a bend like this: ^


2014: We did not have a higher-high today!
I hope you can appreciate the similarities between 2014 and 2011 in the '^' bend of the price and the 3rd descending peak of MACD and RSI. Interestingly, at the top of each high, the RSI barely touched a value of 70.



DAILY

I spoke about how this uptrend is a single wave yesterday (Friday 10/31).



The 3 most important things in trading: 1-2-3 set up

A 1-2-3 set up takes place during:

=> a new uptrend,

and/or

=> a C wave.

Note: If you read this prior week's blog, you will see how we were looking for a 1-2-3 set up in the downward direction to call the start of wave C down
This did not happen, despite the divergence we were noticing between price and MACD in SPY, $SPX and ES/ (suggestive of an end to the uptrend).



WHERE ARE WE ?

1). Either a giant single wave-1 up: It would require a sizable drop and then a breakout (1-2-3)

or

2). a wave B: I here show what would confirm such case (below).



CONCLUSION: Wait patiently now until we have clarity